Poll Politics- Jammu Scene

Although Parliamentary Boards of all political parties have yet to decide their candidates for the upcoming Lok Sabha polls, political analysts have already begun guessing as to who will be who’s candidate in Jammu.

Since NC and PDP have shown their anger against CEC for not announcing LS and Assembly polls together nothing can be categorically said about their next course of action but that Jammu and Ladakh Divisions will witness interesting electoral battle this I can say with surety.

Therefore it would be good for me to confine myself to politics of Jammu alone where battle will be fought mainly between BJP and Congress with many others playing spoil sport.

Jammu Division has two Lok Sabha seats; Jammu-Poonch and Kathua-Udhampur-Doda. Both were held by BJP last time. Whereas Jammu-Poonch seat was represented by Jugal Kishor Sharma, Union Minister Dr. Jitendra Singh represented Kathua-Udhampur Lok Sabha Constituency.

JAMMU-POONCH LOK SABHA CONSTITUENCY

This constituency is spread over four districts namely Samba, Jammu, Rajouri and Poonch. There are 20 assembly segments in it namely Samba, Vijaypur, Nagrota, Gandhinagar, Jammu East, Jammu West, Bishnah, R.S Pura, Suchetgarh, Marh, Raipur Domana, Akhnoor, Chamb, Nowshehra, Darhal, Rjouri, Kalakot, Surankot, Mendhar and Poonch- Haveli.

Although rumors are abuzz about replacement of old candidates by all contesting parties my observation at least about BJP candidate does not subscribe to this version. Since there is nothing adverse against the incumbent representative changing him hardly stands any chance. However, all are free to discuss his winnability. Last time he had defeated Madan Lal Sharma of Congress. This time however, who will be Congress candidate no official word has been dropped so far in this regard.

KATHUA UDHAMPPUR SEAT

This Lok Sabha constituency is spread over 6 didticts namely Kishtwar, Ramban, Kathua, Doda, Riasi and Udhampur. It has 17 assembly segments in it. They are, Riasi, Gool-Arnas, Gulabgarh, Kishtwar, Inderwal, Bhaderwah, Doda, Ramban, Banihal, Udhampur, Chineni, Ramnagar, Bani, Basolhi, Kathua, Billawar and Hiranagar. Interestingly, population of this constituency is 2,4,00,000, more than the population of Maxico and is spread over 20,230 square km which is more than area of Israel. In 2014, this seat was won by BJP’s first timer Dr. Jitendra Singh by defeating Congress stalwart Ghulam Nabi Azad by a huge margin of over 65,000 votes. This time Azad may not like to contest but there are several other names like Ch. Lal Singh of Dogra Swabhiman Sangathan, Kr. Vikramaditya Singh of Congress and Harshdev Singh of Panthers Party which are making rounds.

Former minister and senior Panther leader is being mentioned as possible replacement of party Chief and noted Supreme Court Lawyer Professor Bhim Singh who used to be party’s traditional candidate from this constituency it is another thing though that insiders believe that he always played Congress pawn to divide BJP votes. After getting a humiliating defeat at the hands of BJP’s R.S Pathania in his traditional fort Ramnagar, Harshdev Singh may jump in to national politics and willingly or unwillingly play the same game his Chief Bhim Singh used to play and help Congress indirectly.

Being a beginner in the electoral politics, Vikramaditya Singh will not break much ice as Congress candidate. His only credential is that he is the son of Dr. Karan Singh whose 15 year long term as MP from this constituency has been an utter failure. In this backdrop convincing voters and seek votes from them could be a difficult proposition. Also, his political somersault—from PDP to Congress is still fresh in public memory.

Another leader who is seeking BJP mandate is Dogra Swabhiman Sangthan Chief Ch. Lal Singh although his two time tenure as MP from this constituency has also not been much impressive either. He is a strong leader, a vocal Dogra and a solid administrator which makes him more suitable for State politics than national one. I strongly believe that, as a seasoned and experienced politician he will play his cards and decide his course of action in such a manner as could enable him to come to the expectations of Jammu people. Hopefully, instead of staking his claim on Lok Sabha ticket he will whole heartedly support BJP’s incumbent MP and work for his success. As for himself, he should ensure berth as rotational CM or whole time Deputy CM in the next government. This is the chair he deserves and this is the office he can utilize to serve people of Jammu in a better manner.

As for Dr. Jitendra Singh, in view of his statesmanship, rich writing and oration skills he suits Central politics more than anybody else. His maiden tenure as MP of this constituency has also been impressive about which he will explain during his pre-poll public meetings. However, the game will not be as simple as it initially looks. It is fraught with many complexities. Congress and NC have already made it clear that they will contest these elections together. In that case, National Conference may field a Muslim candidate against Vikramaditya Singh who will divide Hindu votes to ensure victory of NC candidate. The two parties had been playing such nasty games in past and will not hesitate repeating them in future, too. Significantly, last time PDP had performed well but this time its graph is on the sliding mode hence no scope for its candidate if at all it decides to field one.

March 25 and 26 are the last dates for filing nomination papers for Jammu and Udhampur seats respectively when mystery of candidates will be finally unraveled. Till then keep guessing and enjoying sweet sunny snow.