Why I say, Dr. Jitendra Singh will win hands down?
BY: RANBIR MANHAS PUBLISHED ON APRIL 16, 2019
Ever since Dr. Jitendra Singh filed his nomination papers as BJP candidate I have been saying that he will retain Kathua-Udhampur Lok Sabha seat by an invincible margin and I have sound mathematical reason to say so. To begin with, let’s discuss this constituency in terms of demography as per 2011 census.
*Doda: Population of Doda District was 4.10 lakh out of which Hindus were 1.87 lakh (44.77%) and 2.20 lakh(53.82 %) were Muslims.
*Kishtwar: In Kishtwar District, the total population was 2.30 lakh out of which 0.95 lakh (40.72 %) were Hindus while 1.33 lakh (57.75 %) were Muslims.
*Ramban: In Ramban District the total population was 3.00 lakh out of which 2.10 lakh (70%) were Hindus while 0.90 lakh (10%) were Muslims.
*Udhampur: The population of Udhampur District was 5.60 lakh out of which 4.93 lakh (88%) were Hindus and 0.60 lakh (10.77%) were Muslims.
*Riasi: Population of Riasi District was 3.15 lakh out of which 1.54 lakh (49%) were Hindus as compared to 1.58 lakh (50% ) Muslims.
*Kathua: Population of Kathua District was 6.20 lakh out of which 5.45 lakh (88%) were Hindus while Muslims were 0.66 lakh (10.50 %).
As compared to 14 lakh votes in 2014, there are 17 lakh voters in Udhampur Lok Sabha constituency in 2019.
Now let’s presume that voting %age remains 70 % this time also the total number of votes polled should be about 12 lakh out of which 8.4 lakh should be Hindus and 3.60 lakh should be Muslims. Also if we presume that this time also the voting percentage obtained by BJP and Congress remains same as it was in 2014, BJP should get 5.70 lakh votes this time as compared to 5.10 lakh votes going to Congress giving BJP a lead of 0. 60 lakh votes once again. But this time with communal polarization and Modi wave running high coupled with a weak INC-NC-PDP common candidate in Vikramaditya Singh the pattern is expected to witness a drastic change thereby increasing the BJP lead manifolds.
By using Congress specks if all Muslims cast their votes in favour of Congress then expecting that Hindus will remain a divided lot would be unrealistic. In that case BJP should get all 8.40 lakh Hindu votes as compared to all 3.80 Muslim votes to Congress. But this will not happen as neither all Muslims will vote for Congress nor will all Hindus vote for BJP. Analysis:
In 2014, main contesting parties BJP, Congress, BSP, Panthers Party and PDP had bagged 4.86, 4.26, 0.16, 0.25 and 0.30 lakh votes respectively. Also, 0.16 and 0.10 lakh votes had gone to independents and NOTA respectively.
If we add 0 .30 lakh votes of PDP in Congress account Azad’s score could have been 4.56 lakh votes still 0.30 lakh votes less than Dr. Jitendra Singh’s. Last time Congress had bagged 3.20 lakh Muslim votes meaning thereby that 1.06 Hindus had also voted for Azad. This time number of Muslim votes is 3.80 lakh out of which according to 2014 ratio 1.26 lakh Hindus should cast their votes for Congress taking its vote share to 5.06 lakh leaving 6.94 lakh votes for BJP, BSP, PP and others. In view of voting %age of 2014, BSP, PP and others will get 0.20 and 0. 30, 0.30 lakh votes respectively (0. 80 lakh votes) leaving behind 6.14 lakh votes for BJP. Congress might believe that Muslims will vote in its favour en bloc but the fact that Hindus will not vote for Congress to the extent they voted last time cannot be ignored as well. Last time Hindus had voted for Azad not for Congress and this time Azad is missing. Moreover, anti-national, anti-Army and anti-Jammu stance taken by Cong-NC-PDP trio has compelled even staunch secular Hindus to support BJP candidate. In this backdrop if Vikramaditya Singh gets even 0.50 lakh Hindu votes it would be a great achievement thereby reducing Congress share of votes to 4.30 and increasing BJP share to 6.90 lakh votes. This way, BJP lead would be 2.60 lakh votes. However, a new factor in Ch. Lal Singh has entered the game upon which Congress seems relying most. Congress hopes that he will cut in to BJP vote share considerably but if Congress leaders think that Ch. Lal Singh will get +2.60 lakh votes to equate with remaining BJP votes then they are not only fools of paradise but fools in real sense also because even DSS workers believe that their leader may not cross 0.30 mark meaning thereby that he may also not reduce BJP lead below 2.30 lakh votes. Engineer Rashid supported by Shah Faisal has also fielded his candidate. If he also gets plus 0.15 lakh votes, then BJP will win by an invincible lead of impressive 2.45 lakh votes. On the basis of the above research work my belief is that BJP candidate Dr. Jitendra Singh will win Udhampur Lok Sabha seat for which polling will take place day after tomorrow with a big lead which in no case could be less than 2.0 lakh votes.*
