J&K Assembly Elections May Open Pandora’s Box

After nearly a decade-long hiatus, the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir concluded the election to a 90-member legislative assembly on October 8. The election has come after so many wild speculations in the opposition camp suspecting the intention of the Union government for holding the polls in the UT. The suspicions were created by the former valley-centric State leadership and supported by the opposition alliance called INDIA. It was part of a maligning campaign initiated by the opposition with which the NC and PDP had developed a close camaraderie.  In the end, their suspicions have been belied. And with that, the propaganda of the opposition, including the NC, about democracy being thwarted in the country stands rubbished by the result of the election. 

Election results have been announced. The final position shows that the NC won  23.43 % of votes, the BJP 25.64 %, the PDP 8.87 %, the INC 11.87 %, others 30.9 % and NOTA 1.48 %. These statistics show that percentage-wise BJP has bagged the largest percentage of votes. Numerically speaking, the BJP has improved its previous record by winning four seats more than its tally in the 2014 election. The voter turnout in this election was 61 %, which is a record for J&K elections.

In a few respects, this election has thrown up some harsh realities. The polarisation between the two regions of the state (for now a Union territory) remains, in the sense that while BJP has not won a single seat in the valley, other parties have won at least four seats in the Jammu region. 

If the majority vote in the valley points to the restoration of the Abdullah dynastic rule, the exclusion of new parties and of the otherwise influential Jamat-e-Islami, as well as the revival of what is called “the lost identity of Kashmiris,” then the landslide victory of the BJP in Jammu indicates strong support for the region to become a separate political and administrative entity like Ladakh now is.

The NDA government often asserted that the abrogation of Articles 370 and 35-A was required to put an end to the lack of development initiatives from successive elected governments in the J&K State. It made claims about helping the state enter an enviable phase of development, citing numerous instances in support of its argument. It further asserted that there was no public opposition to the abrogation of Article 370/35-A and that the BJP flag was fluttering everywhere in the valley. Those claims are not borne out by election results. Dr Farooq Abdullah often said that the BJP’s claims about developing the State amounted to a face-lift of a few streets and tourist spots. The BJP will have to give serious thought to the question of whether the economic transformation it alleges to have brought has reached the ordinary man in Kashmir or not.

The reason why new political parties, like Altaf Bukhari’s JKAP or Ghulam Nabi Azad’s DPAP have been rejected is that people compared their positions vis-a-vis the NC and began nursing suspicions that they might be playing a double game. The most significant inference one can perhaps draw from the result of this election is that the relentless propaganda unleashed by Farooq Abdullah and other anti-BJP government elements elsewhere in the nation that the Abrogation Act of 2019 has snatched away everything from Kashmiris, worked wonders with the average Kashmiris in the valley. They were told that their identity, their personality and their unique status had been taken away from them. The rhetoric alluded to the religious peculiarity and separate ethnic identity of native valley denizens. No one among the supporters of this claim cared to ask the promoters of this theory what they meant by the unique identity of Kashmiris. Joining his voice with the national opposition, Farooq Abdullah also made it clear that a major objective of the NC was to remove Narendra Modi and the BJP from power at the Centre. 

Omar Abdullah, the Vice President of NC, has formed the new government as his father had announced. He made some significant remarks, stating that the new chief minister should try to mend fences with the Centre and straighten centre-state relations. He has also said that there is no possibility of restoration of Article 370/35 A and that the matter does not merit rethinking.

Are these conciliatory words coming sincere or deceptive? Omar knows that recently special powers have been conferred upon the Lt Governor that bind the chief minister’s hands. He won’t have full power to make crucial administrative decisions. The NC has made many promises to the electorate during the election campaign. To fulfil them and try solving the unemployment problem, there is only one possible source of support which  is the Union government. Gone are the days when the Srinagar government could blackmail the Congress Party, extracted huge funds from Delhi, refused to submit implementation reports and enjoyed the salubrious environment and scenic beauty in Kashmir’s tourist resorts in blissful oblivion of its obligations to serve the interests of the local people? Did not Farooq’s goons attacked and manhandled an ED team when it once visited Srinagar to perform its official duties. Not a dog barked. We should not forget that when Burhan Wani, the terrorist leader was shot dead, Omar Abdullah said in a public meeting that Burhan Wani was being eulogised and mourned in every mosque of Kashmir.

The fact is that Dr Farooq Abdullah has gone beyond the pale in denigrating Modi and his government since August 6, 2019. Now that the elected government faces the harsh realities of ruling a restive State he is making his son the cat’s paw to mollify the Prime Minister and save face in the process.

Another issue to ponder is that, if the NC-led government in J&K adopts a policy of confrontation with the Centre, then Pandora’s Box will open and skeletons will fall from the cupboard that holds the State’s political and financial records.