Rahul Gandhi’s asymmetric challenge to Modi

Narendra Modi became Prime Minister for the third time, but it is undeniable that Rahul Gandhi has risen in the political firmament.

By Sandhya Jain

After a somnolent start, the 26-party Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (launched on July 18, 2023) redeemed itself by winning 232 seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The Congress party won 99 seats, and the independent MP from Sangli, Vishal Patil, extended support to the Congress and raised its tally to 100. Rahul Gandhi became the Leader of Opposition in the Lok Sabha. The INDI Alliance is buttressed by the Trinamool Congress and the Biju Janata Dal.

The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party retained its dominant position with 240 seats and enjoyed a clear majority of 293 seats with its partners in the NDA coalition. Narendra Modi became Prime Minister for the third time, but it is undeniable that Rahul Gandhi has risen in the political firmament.

Since then, however, it has been a mixed record with some hits and some terrible misses.

The surprise decision to field Priyanka Gandhi Vadra from the Wayanad (Kerala) constituency, vacated by Rahul Gandhi after his victory from Rai Bareli (UP) aims at overcoming the slump of the previous decade. Congress will now have a Gandhi scion in the north and another one in the south. Retaining Wayanad with its 28.65 per cent Muslim and 21.34 per cent Christian population (Census 2011) will assure the minorities that the party stands by their interests.

Some issues put Congress on the back foot immediately after the elections. The first was Rahul Gandhi claiming a stock market scam just before the election results. He charged that on May 13, 2024, the then Home Minister Amit Shah had advised people to “Buy shares before June 4th,” and on May 19, Narendra Modi had claimed, “Stock markets will break records on June 4th.” On June 1, the exit polls unanimously predicted a spectacular performance by the BJP as a result of which the stock market rose to a record high on June 3, only to crash on June 4 when trends became clear.

BJP leader Piyush Goyal countered that in April and May, when the market was rising, foreigners sold shares and Indian investors bought shares and benefitted. On the day of the exit poll, foreigners bought at high prices (Rs 6,850 crores). When the results came on June 4, the market fell and foreign investors sold at low prices while Indian investors bought, confident that the Modi government would come to power. Thus, foreigners bought at a high price and sold at a low price. Indian investors earned both times.

The second issue causing huge embarrassment is the Congress Guarantee Card that promised inter alia an income of Rs one lakh per annum for each woman in a poor family. During the election campaign, party workers told women voters to submit the forms with their booth numbers after the elections. Since then, women have been queuing up at Congress offices in several cities, causing mortified party workers to lock the offices and flee!

Then, Rahul Gandhi’s attack on the Agnipath scheme has been unproductive at best. The need for reforms in military recruitment was first flagged by Arun Nehru in 1989 after the withdrawal of the Indian Peace Keeping Force (IPKF) from Sri Lanka. It resurfaced after the Kargil War. Finally, the Modi government launched the Agniveer Scheme and the first batch is currently serving its term.

A week ago, Rahul Gandhi released a video of the father of an Agniveer who claimed that the family had not received any compensation from the Centre after his son was killed in a landmine explosion in Naushera in Jammu & Kashmir in January 2024. This was refuted by the army which released details of the compensation paid to the next of kin (mother) of Agniveer Ajay Kumar, with remaining dues to be disbursed in due course.

The narrative that a chunk of the money was from insurance and not a central government pay-out was shameful, as if insurance companies do charity rather than contribute to the Centre’s scheme for benefits to the families of deceased soldiers. It must be said that the Agniveer’s father disgraced himself with his false claims, possibly because the funds were disbursed to the mother’s account according to a long-standing government policy.

Yet Gandhi attacked the government in the Lok Sabha, alleging that the Agniveers were not granted the status of “martyrs” when they died in the line of duty. He seemed unaware that “martyr” is an epithet bestowed by society to honour its brave soldiers, and that no official “martyr” status is granted to any soldier.

As Prime Minister Modi indicated during the debate in the Lok Sabha (July 2), the scheme is a key reform in the defence sector and aims at shedding flab and raising the fighting fitness of the armed forces. Agnipath can be tweaked. Having observed it for two years, the Armed Forces are considering raising the upper age limit from 21 to 23 years to attract graduates for technical jobs and retaining at least 50 per cent (instead of 25 per cent) after four years to hedge against a manpower crunch in specialised areas. The Centre is keen to avoid the slur that the policy is motivated by a desire to reduce the pension bill.

Separatists

The Congress, members of the INDI Alliance, and informal allies have all avoided taking a stand on the election to the Lok Sabha of three separatists in the recent elections, viz., the pro-Khalistan Bhai Amritpal Singh (Khadur Sahib) and Sarabjeet Singh Khalsa (Faridkot) in Punjab, and Kashmiri separatist Sheikh Abdul Rashid (Baramulla) in J&K.

Amritpal is perceived as dangerous and has unknown backers. He landed in Punjab out of the blue in June 2022. He denied his Indian nationality and urged the youth to pick up arms to fight for Khalistan. In March 2023, he took the Granth Sahib with a mob to a police station but ran away after being chased by the policemen. In July 2024, he took oath as an MP after being briefly released under Section 15 of the National Security Act 1980.

The election of persons known to oppose the unity of India highlights the urgent need for electoral reforms. Senior Advocate Vikas Singh pointed out that such a situation was not envisaged by the makers of the Constitution and hence there should be a constitutional amendment to specify charges under which candidates will be disqualified from contesting elections. Singh called for plugging the loophole that allows persons in jail to contest elections by authorising another person to file nominations on their behalf.

The question is whether this amendment will receive the support it deserves across party lines.

References:

Indian opposition parties form ‘INDIA’ alliance, Reuters, July 18, 2023.

https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indian-opposition-parties-form-alliance-called-india-2024-elections-2023-07-18

‘INDIA’: What you need to know about India’s opposition alliance, AlJazeera, July 26, 2023.

 https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/26/india-what-you-need-to-know-about-indias-opposition-alliance

Forces seek to raise Agnipath age limit to 23, increase retention to 50%, Hindustan Times, July 06, 2024.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/afternoon-brief-armed-forces-seek-to-extend-agnipath-age-limit-dot-rebuffs-congs-claims-on-mobile-tariff-hike-more-101720247743607.html

Rahul Gandhi, Leave Agniveer Alone!!, Nidhi Bahuguna, July 06, 2024.

https://myind.net/Home/viewArticle/rahul-gandhi-leave-agniveer-alone#google_vignette

(The article has been previously published in Chintan Foundation India).