UP-Bihar by polls: Which way wind will blow?

BY: RANBIR MANHAS PUBLISHED ON MARCH 14, 2018

Low voting percentage in UP by polls held a couple of days ago as compared to one in general elections of 2014 is meaningful.

If we compare the two figures the difference is quite wide. For instance in Gorakhpur constituency of UP if voting percentage was 54 in 2014 it went down to 43 in 2018. Similarly in Phulpur, if 53 % people had cast their votes in 2014, the number slid to 33% this time.

To understand as to why it happened and what could be its fall out I had asked my friends to give me their valuable suggestions so that those could help me compile this analysis in a fool proof manner. However their suggestions have been a mix-bag of reactions. Although most of them opined that since by poll results in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh people had voted against BJP the trend will be repeated in UP and Bihar as well. However, there was hardly any comment about the reasons behind the low voting percentage and its possible fall out.

TTheir comments are welcome indeed, but I differ with them and this difference of opinion is not for the sake of difference, but it has the support of certain statistical facts and figures.

For instance I have a sound reason to say that results of the Rajasthan by polls cannot be compared with those in UP on the following grounds:

1. In Rajasthan a strong anti-incumbency wave against ten year Vasundhra rule was prevailing thereby forcing even BJP voters to support Congress and defeating their own candidates. But in UP, less than one year rule of Yogi believably, there cannot be any incumbency factor hence low voting %age.
2. Yet another factor, which can be described as a genuine possibility behind the low percentage of voter turnout in UP could be that although Bua and Babua have conditionally joined hands their workers may not have become friends.

After all, SP and BSP cadres have been shedding and spilling blood in lanes and drains for decades while confronting each other at the behest of their respective party bosses. The unholy alliance could have disappointed the common worker thereby turning the election fair in to a lackluster affair by their non participation in the election process hence low voting percentage.

However, I am not sure about the outcome of the Bihar by elections where the voting was brisk in 2014 and it was brisk in 2018 as well. On the basis of the voting pattern as we did in UP, coming to a conclusion in Bihar is somewhat difficult. Even then we can make a reasonable guess.

In Bihar, Janata Dal United (JDU) under the leadership of Nitish Kumar is in the seat of power with BJP as a coalition partner. The alliance should be facing anti-incumbency factor as a matter of routine. But RJD’s star campaigner Lalu Prasad Yadav who is currently behind the bars facing charges of corruption and scams will not be there to exploit the anti-incumbency factor and boost the sagging morale of his cadres.

The conduct and behavior of his sons is also unpleasant and unruly. Now how much effect these factors will cast on the outcome of the current by polls and which way the wind actually blows would be an interesting thing to watch. So wait and watch till tomorrow and stay blessed.

As a political analyst, I have made many predictions in past most of which proved true and hopefully my analytical prediction bout the UP and Bihar by elections will also come true.